Optimization of cropping pattern under seasonal fluctuations of surface water using multistage stochastic programming

Abstract Given rapid socio-economic development, increasing food demand and decreasing available resources, the challenge of seasonal fluctuations surface water has become a major problem in agricultural sector, causing change consumption from to groundwater resources reduction farmers' income. Therefore, optimal programming cropping pattern is necessary handle such challenges. To accomplish this aim, model irrigation allocation was developed based on using multistage stochastic accordance with supply fluctuations. In model, different states were considered for all seasons network Jiroft plain Kerman Province, Iran, which faces severe shortage tendency farmers overuse resources. By solving it can be observed that, by utilizing an appropriate pattern, more benefits could realized conditions The results also indicated that if released into canals increased spring, share profitable high crops will increase, strengthen profits put pressure However, not expected lead significant resource increase intensity. According obtained, cannot meet needs region, even patterns, led area. Finally, planning help adoption desired policies management through proper release these